Here’s a Thought: Debunking the Myth of Cole Hamels’ Regression

Posted: 20th December 2009 by Nathaniel Stoltz in MLB
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Cole Hamels went 14-10 with a 3.09 ERA in 2008. He ended the year a World Series hero. Cole Hamels went 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA in 2009. He ended the year a World Series bust. Naturally, any fan seeing this would think that Hamels had some sort of huge fall from grace; he must have done more wrong in 2009 than 2008. The media was all over this line of thinking, particularly in the playoffs (when, admittedly, he did struggle, unlike his excellent 2008 postseason). Not so fast. I was entering data into my True ERA spreadsheet today, and I was entering Hamels' tRA in from Fangraphs when I noticed something. Hamels' Fielding Independent Pitching numbers from 2008 and 2009 are exactly equal, at 3.72. Interesting. Then again, in an article last night, I showed that Astros lefty Tim Byrdak was wild ...

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