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Riddle me this: If many a fantasy analyst proclaim that itÆs very difficult to predict how a defense will do before the season, then how much stock should we put into early-season performance? Think about it. Is it at all likely that said defense will perform up to those numbers the rest of the season if they are so unpredictable and inconsistent? Moreover, during which week of the ...

NFL: Regression to the Mean, Sample Size, and In-Season Projections

Posted: 12th September 2009 by Zach Fein in NFL
What if I told you that Adrian Peterson isn’t as good as his stats say? My reasoning is the Curse of the Leading Rusher. You’ve never heard of it before, but it’s an obvious trend. Since 1980, the NFL’s leading rusher has seen his rushing yards fall by 489 yards and his YPC by almost half a yard just one season later. Only six of the 31 leading rushers ...